down the series of tubes
and with that, another miserable old fraud goes down, and a filibuster-proof senate majority becomes a legitimate possibility.
standard disclaimer about complacency and premature celebration, etc., but with obama’s prospects looking the way they do at the moment, is the presidential race is becoming just a little bit… boring? anybody else finding themselves more interested in the senate all of a sudden?
with stevens on ice, these seem to be the hot contests:
- Franken/Coleman in MN
- Lunsford/McConnell in KY
- Udall (my old congressman)/Schaffer in CO
- Merkley/Smith in OR
- Shaheen/Sununu in NH
- Hagan/Dole in NC
these are all tight contests, and most narrowly favor the democrat. assuming a sweep of all of the above, and one or two longshot flips like Martin in GA or maybe Musgrove in MS, a supermajority could happen.
my guess is that november 4th will go down one of two ways:
obama will win, but by a relatively narrow margin — say, 5% or less in the popular vote — that will startle us with the realization of how much closer it was than everybody thought; in this case, we’ll be doing well to reach 56 in the senate, and president obama will have to contend with the semi-plausible impression of a divided electorate and the attendant, too-predictable gridlock and bipartisan half-assedness. (nevermind that bush got away with claiming a mandate on the strength of barely 51% — that was different.)
or, it will be seismic. obama wins with 300+ electoral votes, including some states like indiana that nobody thought would flip in a million years. in this scenario, we win all the close senate races and at least one or two surprise states. in which case, let’s just say that joe lieberman is going to find out what his colleagues really think of him.
if i had to guess, i’d say scenario A is more likely. but either way, it feels sooo gooood to see a corrupt motherfucker like ted stevens get some comeuppance. i’m pretty sure it makes me a bad person, but knowing that old crook is probably going to die in prison just makes me smile.