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Reports of  Mumbai flowed to my radio as I traversed the rural midwest for the holiday. The recurring topic was the nationality of the attackers. My first thought was “are these guys really Pakistani?” They seem to be well-trained, if only because the amount of carnage from ten people showed a great deal of lethally-efficient planning.

That, alone, is certainly no indication of nationality. Fanning the nuclear-powered tensions certainly fuels chaos. “If this is part of the intention”, the second thought, “Do these guys have a cause?” The BBC suggests that this may be more like the events of Columbine or Va Tech, without a cause other than celebrity. I continue to pour over reports and photos looking for answers, dots to connect met with only more dots and fewer lines. Anyone else care to share their reaction?

I must say there’s something comforting about seeing Obama at the lecturn each morning. I realize there’s probably a point of diminishing returns on press conferences, but considering how the resident-in-chief is rarely seen on tv, it certainly is a change. Check out the new poll to the right weigh in.

“Current crisis not related to fuel prices: Current problem is not that consumers are demanding different, more fuel-efficient vehicles; the problem is that consumers are not buying vehicles at all.” – UAW

You spent years trying to get me to drive a Ford Gigantor, Chevy Truckles (now with balls!) and Chrysler Mini-my-wallet Van. There’s a reason the car I drive is from 1991, actually quite a few. The largest factor? It gets 26 m.p.g. highway and it’s all-wheel-drive! Why would I pay you for no improvement? Certainly it’s time you set the bar at 50+ for anything that doesn’t tow something. You’ve had years to work on this.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/10331

Anyone care to inform me what the tipping point is for us writing “bad checks” to foreign countries?

(more…)

With the election in the bag, the wing-nut-o-sphere in disarray and the markets in the tank, I still find myself holding my breath. If GM closes, lame duck Bush pounds through a pile of deregulation and I have no bowl game to watch my world is a bit darker. I guess it comes down to Josh and Amy to produce a baby to play with and a never-ending pile of PC/360 titles as the weather turns fierce in Iowa. Here’s hoping the new year dawns with real hope.

Update 2:22 p m:

Toyota hurting too

(the “result” numbers here are based on MSNBC’s map.)

on the overall result, i’m astonished to see that i out-pessimisted ben on this one, posting the most conservative and — to my great delight — least accurate electoral prediction of the panel. gray’s cockeyed optimism, meanwhile, turned out to be scary-accurate: he nailed the EV count, assuming these numbers are stable. if we should happen to see NC shift to mccain in the final count, charlie would take over the title of Supreme Handicapper, with mark a close second in either case.

for individual states, the entire panel called PA, VA, CO, NM, GA, AZ & IA correctly. charlie was all alone in picking indiana for obama, as was gray with north carolina. charlie & gray also both nailed ohio, which the rest of us were afraid to believe was winnable (i’m still a little shocked). ben was the only one who ventured a guess on nebraska’s 2nd district, which was correct, though counting continues with a mccain lead of less than 600 votes at last check.

though we all accurately predicted the winner in pennsylvania, we significantly underestimated obama’s margin, and as a group we tended to lowball colorado and new mexico. the spread in nevada was also a big surprise — for me especially; i was way off.

I love you Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Prancer, Donner, Blitzen…

Still can’t believe it was OH that more or less clinched it. And so thumpingly at that. Definitely didn’t see it coming.

Usually at this point I wake up…

Over the last two days of canvassing around Johnson County, IA, including some pretty rural locales, I’ve seen tremendous interest in the election, especially among minorities. I think one of the surprises tonight will be the black & brown turnout in places like Iowa that people don’t often think of as having a significant nonwhite vote. Either way, based on anecdotal evidence as well as polling, I’m confident Obama will win here by a big margin.

Ed Rendell on MSNBC a few minutes ago talked about truly astronomical turnout in the Philadelphia area, which if true could mean Pennsylvania is already out of McCain’s reach.

Virginia’s electoral system seems to be seriously fucked so we may not know the result until late, though it may not matter in the end either.

Waiting, waiting…

  

Josh's prediction

 

 

Battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania – McCain can’t win without it, so if PA goes blue it will likely mean an early night. OTOH, despite a commanding lead in the polls it’s not entirely in the bag for Barack (viz. This American Life’s slightly ominous report from the weekend before last). Obama by 3-5.

Ohio – Polls show Obama ahead, but with this state’s history of voting irregularities & out-and-out widespread disenfranchisement, I just can’t count on Ohio. McCain by 1-2.

Virginia – Should be among the first results posted, and if paired with good news out of Pennsylvania will mean it’s time to pour the champagne. Don’t know why, but I feel like Obama will squeak by with a one or two point spread.

Florida – Ditto Ohio, though there are signs of improvements to the voting system like Crist’s laudable decision to extend voting hours. Between that and Obama’s well-publicized army of lawyers and apparently kickass ground game, I feel like he could win, but not by more than a few points.

Colorado – Decisive for Obama, to the tune of 4-5 points.

New Mexico – Forget everything I said a couple of weeks ago. Obama by 5+.

Nevada – It can’t all be good news, so I’ll randomly give this one to McCain, by a negligible margin.

Shouldn’t-be-close-but-could-flip-anyway:

North Carolina – Polling ridiculously close, but feels too good to be true. If they do go for Obama, though, it will mean all bets are off in Georgia. McCain by microns.

Georgia – Holy shit. As I’ve mentioned, the idea — however far-fetched — of Georgia being in play for the Democrat gives me a boner. I don’t think it will happen, but I’ll have a change of pants handy tomorrow night just in case.

Montana – Why not? Like elsewhere in the interior west, MT has been subtly trending blue, and seems like the kind of wild-card state that could deliver an upset. What the hell — Obama by one.

Indiana – Meh. Recession or no, those crackers will never back a Democrat. Polling is tight, but I just don’t see it.

North Dakota – Like Montana, their 3 electoral votes aren’t likely to make or break either candidate. Best-case scenario is MT & ND cancel each other out.

Missouri – Who knows? Obama could definitely win it. He’s campaigning there today, but my sense overall is that MO has not been one of the top-tier priorities for the O camp, and since it’s an overwhelmingly red state by default, McCain gets the edge.

Arizona – It would add a nice bit of insult to McCain’s many injuries, but it’s probably asking too much. Anyway, we’ll likely have a winner before their results are even in, so it’ll be mostly symbolic whichever way it goes.

Okay, your turn!