Stickybuffalo.com

(the “result” numbers here are based on MSNBC’s map.)

on the overall result, i’m astonished to see that i out-pessimisted ben on this one, posting the most conservative and — to my great delight — least accurate electoral prediction of the panel. gray’s cockeyed optimism, meanwhile, turned out to be scary-accurate: he nailed the EV count, assuming these numbers are stable. if we should happen to see NC shift to mccain in the final count, charlie would take over the title of Supreme Handicapper, with mark a close second in either case.

for individual states, the entire panel called PA, VA, CO, NM, GA, AZ & IA correctly. charlie was all alone in picking indiana for obama, as was gray with north carolina. charlie & gray also both nailed ohio, which the rest of us were afraid to believe was winnable (i’m still a little shocked). ben was the only one who ventured a guess on nebraska’s 2nd district, which was correct, though counting continues with a mccain lead of less than 600 votes at last check.

though we all accurately predicted the winner in pennsylvania, we significantly underestimated obama’s margin, and as a group we tended to lowball colorado and new mexico. the spread in nevada was also a big surprise — for me especially; i was way off.

I love you Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Prancer, Donner, Blitzen…

Still can’t believe it was OH that more or less clinched it. And so thumpingly at that. Definitely didn’t see it coming.

Usually at this point I wake up…

Over the last two days of canvassing around Johnson County, IA, including some pretty rural locales, I’ve seen tremendous interest in the election, especially among minorities. I think one of the surprises tonight will be the black & brown turnout in places like Iowa that people don’t often think of as having a significant nonwhite vote. Either way, based on anecdotal evidence as well as polling, I’m confident Obama will win here by a big margin.

Ed Rendell on MSNBC a few minutes ago talked about truly astronomical turnout in the Philadelphia area, which if true could mean Pennsylvania is already out of McCain’s reach.

Virginia’s electoral system seems to be seriously fucked so we may not know the result until late, though it may not matter in the end either.

Waiting, waiting…