final predictions
Josh's prediction
Battlegrounds:
Pennsylvania – McCain can’t win without it, so if PA goes blue it will likely mean an early night. OTOH, despite a commanding lead in the polls it’s not entirely in the bag for Barack (viz. This American Life‘s slightly ominous report from the weekend before last). Obama by 3-5.
Ohio – Polls show Obama ahead, but with this state’s history of voting irregularities & out-and-out widespread disenfranchisement, I just can’t count on Ohio. McCain by 1-2.
Virginia – Should be among the first results posted, and if paired with good news out of Pennsylvania will mean it’s time to pour the champagne. Don’t know why, but I feel like Obama will squeak by with a one or two point spread.
Florida – Ditto Ohio, though there are signs of improvements to the voting system like Crist’s laudable decision to extend voting hours. Between that and Obama’s well-publicized army of lawyers and apparently kickass ground game, I feel like he could win, but not by more than a few points.
Colorado – Decisive for Obama, to the tune of 4-5 points.
New Mexico – Forget everything I said a couple of weeks ago. Obama by 5+.
Nevada – It can’t all be good news, so I’ll randomly give this one to McCain, by a negligible margin.
Shouldn’t-be-close-but-could-flip-anyway:
North Carolina – Polling ridiculously close, but feels too good to be true. If they do go for Obama, though, it will mean all bets are off in Georgia. McCain by microns.
Georgia – Holy shit. As I’ve mentioned, the idea — however far-fetched — of Georgia being in play for the Democrat gives me a boner. I don’t think it will happen, but I’ll have a change of pants handy tomorrow night just in case.
Montana – Why not? Like elsewhere in the interior west, MT has been subtly trending blue, and seems like the kind of wild-card state that could deliver an upset. What the hell — Obama by one.
Indiana – Meh. Recession or no, those crackers will never back a Democrat. Polling is tight, but I just don’t see it.
North Dakota – Like Montana, their 3 electoral votes aren’t likely to make or break either candidate. Best-case scenario is MT & ND cancel each other out.
Missouri – Who knows? Obama could definitely win it. He’s campaigning there today, but my sense overall is that MO has not been one of the top-tier priorities for the O camp, and since it’s an overwhelmingly red state by default, McCain gets the edge.
Arizona – It would add a nice bit of insult to McCain’s many injuries, but it’s probably asking too much. Anyway, we’ll likely have a winner before their results are even in, so it’ll be mostly symbolic whichever way it goes.
Okay, your turn!
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Heh. You said “boner.” Here’s my map from that site. I think there’s a chance at that eastern Nebraska EV as well, but it wasn’t an option on the RCP map. The dailykos’ election site is impressive.
Is it me or is this new server really slow? Oh, and sorry about the missing images, I’ve asked midphase to see if they can recover them. Perhaps after the election we can migrate to my own VPS where ridiculous stunts like switching IP addresses will never happen. Plus it costs less and would give us more control.
Anyway. My predictions, in Josh’s order:
Pennsylvania: goes Obama, but only by 2-4 and it takes longer to call than we’d all like, stressing everyone out considerably.
Ohio: McCain by less than 2. Like Josh says, the place is just too suspect.
Virginia: I think Obama does very well here, wins by more than 3.
Florida: Even closer than Ohio, but won’t matter in the final tally like it did in 2000. Obama by a fraction of a point.
Colorado: I’m with Josh, Obama by 4-5.
New Mexico: Thanks to my canvassing (ha!), Obama by around 8. In a bit of a surprise, though, White beats Heinrich in CD1.
Nevada: Obama takes this by a point, thanks largely to a great ground game in Washoe County.
North Carolina: Just don’t see it happening. McCain by 1-3, probably closer to 3.
Georgia: Fun to daydream, but no. Georgia goes red by at least 4.
Montana: Lack of polling data (like in ND) makes this anyone’s guess. I say McCain holds it by less than 2.
Indiana: I’m with Josh… just don’t see it. McCain by 2.
North Dakota: I think Obama pulls this one out by a hair. If they can elect Dorgan, they can elect Obama.
Missouri: My gut says the ugly stick will beat Missouri this cycle after whacking Ohio in ’04 and Florida in ’00. McCain by a suspect fraction here, though it won’t matter.
Arizona: McCain by 5-ish, though that’s still embarrassingly close for him.
Nebraska CD2: McCain by around 1.
If my math is right, that gives us a final score of 332-206. Not bad — though I’d love it if McCain finished with under 200.
I’ll avoid being too specific in my predictions, since I’m almost always wrong, and the more vague I am, the less wrong I’ll appear to be later.
I think Obama keeps McCain below 200 electoral votes, and has an outside chance of racking up 400 EVs himself. Obama takes all the Kerry states (including PA), plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NV (California Democrats have been all over this state), Ohio, and North Carolina. I think FL and MO are utter toss-ups, and a coin flip would be as good a way as any to predict them. I won’t be surprised if McCain picks off two or three of the states on this list. But if I have to come up with a number, I’m going with 364-174.
Dems end up with 59 seats (counting Sanders and Lieberman) in the Senate. John Murtha is the only incumbent Democrat to lose his seat. And Prop 8 here in California (the odious, Mormon-backed attempt at ending marriage equality) will go down, but by a very narrow margin.
I’d supply my rationales, but I’m late for school.
I’ll keep mine even briefer: I agree with Gray that Obama will take all of the Kerry states, plus IA, NM, CO, VA, and NV. But I don’t think he’ll win OH (too many know-nothings). He will, however, eke out a close one in FL, thanks to the historic African-American turnout. He will also win MO. I’m basically pulling this last one out my ass, but, hey, I was born in MO, and I say MO goes for BO.
Final tally: Obama 358, McCain 180.
As far as Congress goes, all I have to say is this: GOODBYE JOE FUCKING LIEBERMAN!
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