for those of you keeping score at home
(the “result” numbers here are based on MSNBC’s map.)
on the overall result, i’m astonished to see that i out-pessimisted ben on this one, posting the most conservative and — to my great delight — least accurate electoral prediction of the panel. gray’s cockeyed optimism, meanwhile, turned out to be scary-accurate: he nailed the EV count, assuming these numbers are stable. if we should happen to see NC shift to mccain in the final count, charlie would take over the title of Supreme Handicapper, with mark a close second in either case.
for individual states, the entire panel called PA, VA, CO, NM, GA, AZ & IA correctly. charlie was all alone in picking indiana for obama, as was gray with north carolina. charlie & gray also both nailed ohio, which the rest of us were afraid to believe was winnable (i’m still a little shocked). ben was the only one who ventured a guess on nebraska’s 2nd district, which was correct, though counting continues with a mccain lead of less than 600 votes at last check.
though we all accurately predicted the winner in pennsylvania, we significantly underestimated obama’s margin, and as a group we tended to lowball colorado and new mexico. the spread in nevada was also a big surprise — for me especially; i was way off.
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I’m still shocked and surprised that many Californians voted for Obama AND Proposition 8. That was the one sour note of an otherwise phenomenal evening.
Go team! I also suggested NE-2 going to obama but was without an option to name it (link). I was upset by the prop 8 numbers, but happy to the anti-abortion measures andpro-decriminalization votes were much more sane. If only we knew someone on in Mass.
I’m pretty well pissed-off this morning. California has, once again, dropped the fucking ball. Since when do we allow Mormons in Utah to dictate our state constitution? Are Californians stupid, indifferent, or just assholes? Even Los Angeles County went narrowly in favor of Prop 8. What the holy fuck?
Damn you, California, for not letting me enjoy Obama’s victory last night. What a stateful of hateful dicks.
oops — sorry charles, i overlooked your NE prediction. assuming the current result there (mccain by a cunt-hair) is correct, your contest-picking accuracy goes down slightly while your EV-predicting accuracy goes up slightly.
more meaningless data points harvested from my ass…
accuracy picking winner by state/district:
Josh 67%
Charlie 87%
Ben 73%
Gray 80%
Mark 73%
panel average = 76%
average discrepancy of predicted spread vs. actual:
Josh – 4.83
Charlie – 4.80
Ben – 4.53
Gray & Mark – no prediction (wusses!)
the MoE for most polls is between 4 and 5%, so — based on a very small sample and an admittedly idiosyncratic methodology — the accuracy of our instincts seems to be roughly equivalent to the polling data. (does that make sense?)
Thanks for taking the trouble to compile this. The shock of the night to me was how quickly Ohio got called for BHO — I was stunned.
Clearly we all made our mistakes but fared reasonably well on the whole. I for one was far too optimistic about NoDak, but too pessimistic about Ohio, North Carolina and (I missed really on this one) CD1 here in New Mexico. But I do feel rather smug about my call of Missouri, which I expected to be the closest state on the map (in case you couldn’t tell what I meant by that obtuse “ugly stick” metaphor. As I write this, CNN.com has McCain up by about 6,000 votes — roughly half the margin currently listed for North Carolina. So at least I hot one nail on the head.
I’m ecstatic at Obama’s electoral vote margin of victory, and overjoyed simply that he won at all. That said, Prop 8′s passage has me disappointed, as do Bachmann’s and Stevens’s performance.
Still, it’s nice to be able to say I moved from New England to New Mexico and still find myself in a state that’s entirely blue: governor, both senators, all representatives, and of course the presidential vote. Didn’t dream of that when I first came this way.
if only that extra cat nip wasn’t illegal
Wow. The new site design looks great!
Hey hey, look at this: Missouri is still up in the air. At least I got one thing right.