Hey Derek
contrary to polls that show georgia remaining solid red this year, fivethirtyeight.com has analysis of registration and early voting figures that actually suggest a potential obama lead on the strength of black votes.
Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia’s early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic, Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.
d’you buy that?
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Well I’m not Derek, but I buy that Obama is winning Georgia right now. But now is not when winning Georgia matters — November is. And he won’t win it then.
Yes, I buy it. My stepfather is really into the Democratic Party in Georgia, and he thinks Obama can win in Georgia and that Martin will beat Chambliss in the Senate. Of course, he might be drinking the cool-aid. But there’s no telling what could happen if the black vote really comes out–I don’t know if it’s ever happened in Georgia. Maybe in 1976 with Carter. But I definitely would’t give Georgia up as a solid red state at this point.
granted: in terms of securing 270 EV’s it’s not strategically important for obama to pull off an upset in GA — and if mccain loses there it means he’s already lost VA, NC & FL and thereby the whole election. electorally, georgia would be gravy for the obama camp, and i’m sure they’re delighted just to force mccain to waste resources in what should be a safe state for him.
but my god, if obama were to pull it off, the symbolism… it would basically mark the end of the Southern Strategy era of republican presidential politics, wouldn’t it?
[...] - Holy shit. As I’ve mentioned, the idea — however far-fetched — of Georgia being in play for the Democrat gives me a [...]