Predictions, predictions
I have a lot of semi-free time on my hands these days, due to my main client’s inability to furnish me with a full 4 days of work per week. This time — only partly free, because I do need to be avilable to do work at a moment’s notice — is generally spent in front of my iMac perusing the latest news on Obama, polls, the MSI Wind netbook, and Apple-related stuff. I figure it’s high time to gaze into my crystal ball a bit.
First off, new offerings from Apple due tomorrow. The MacBook in my household is the property of my wife and spends most of its time on campus, which is why I’m tethered to my iMac. I’d love something portable so I could get out of the house a bit more (hence my OSX-on-Wind obsession). Rumors abound regarding tomorrow’s annoucement. While I’d love to see an inexpensive, netbook-like offering (I think an 11″ screen with a traditional HD and SD card reader would be perfect), I don’t see Apple going into the netbook realm — the iPhone is sophisticated enough a portable computing device that Apple will stay away from the netbook segment for a while.
I also don’t think we’ll see anything cheaper than $899, or that we’ll see a tablet laptop. Mac OS X isn’t designed for a tablet-style UI and Steve would never release a product where software and hardware weren’t in harmony. However, I think we will see an $899 MacBook. Trackpads will be bigger and support multitouch gestures, and cases will all be so very metal. MacBook Pro specs will get bumped up. Blu-ray seems like a possibility for the Pros and maybe upper-end MacBooks, but no way they offer it at the low end. I also expect some news related to AppleTV and the Mini. I’m not sure what it will be, but I don’t expect it to draw too much attention away from all the new laptops.
As for the election: It seems pretty clear to me that Obama’s finally hit his ceiling in the national polls. Unfortunately, that means that at the moment there’s nowhere to go but down, and down he will go. But I don’t expect that decline will be precipitous, and he may actually recover back to today’s numbers come November.
I definitely expect him to top 300 in the electoral college, though I’m not so optimistic to think Georgia, West Virginia or North Dakota are truly in play despite recent polls. I also actually think North Carolina‘s unlikely to turn blue, even with Dean Smith endorsing Obama. Obama will take FL, NH, MN, OH and VA, but lose out on Nevada and Colorado, giving him a final total of 324 EV’s.
Of course, if Osama bin Laden endorses him or something else crazy happens these last few weeks, I reserve the right to amend that prognositication.
UPDATE: FiveThirtyEight.com just compiled today’s polls and things still look great for That One. But I still think McCain will mount a comeback and take what I outlined above (note that I’m putting Missouri in red, which I failed to mention).
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I agree with pretty much all of these calls — Obama drops a few points but wins handily, McCain holds on to GA/WV/ND/NV while Obama gets FL/NH/MN/OH/VA — but I still have a good feeling about Colorado. Maybe it’s because that’s where I was in 2006 when dems swept both the state & national elections, or maybe it’s just the Kool Aid talking, but I have to believe there’s something to this mountain-west strategy.
Yes, it’s been tight there all along, and yes, Obama’s probably hit his high-water mark nationally, but in CO I don’t see things getting significantly better for McCain either. The Springs crowd is already as mobilized as it’s going to get, and we’ve already seen the Palin/RNC buzz start to wear off, while the Boulder folk are still plenty energized. It comes down to getting out the vote and moving a fairly small number of undecideds, which in a bellwether state like Colorado, and with the financial crisis and with an overall national political dynamic like this year’s, favors Obama.
Tight, yes. But my prediction: Obama by less than 5. New Mexico is another story…
PPP is even less cautious than I am, on the strength of their latest CO poll:
Yeah, Colorado I struggled a lot with. I think ultimately it was just my pessimism rearing its head… the data you cite is pretty convincing. I wouldn’t mind altering my prediction and moving Colorado blue. What story do you expect New Mexico to tell?
Along the Apple news, John Gruber has “spoilers” on today’s pending announcement. I feel like I’m not too far off on most things, although his assertion that the new $899 (ish?) item coming out is a new display, not a laptop, will be hugely disappointing to me if true.
Fortunately, we’ll get resolution on this shortly. As for the election… unfortunately, not this Tuesday.
You’re undoubtedly better positioned than I to comment on New Mexico, Ben, but my impression is that it’s a little tighter there. I saw a segment on NM last week on Jim Lehrer’s show, and NPR did a series of reports from there; they all talked about the hispanic vote being a lot more tied up in social issues and possibly tinged by brown-black animosities, and about the difficulties the Obama campaign is having canvassing the more remote areas in the southern part of the state. I don’t know if there’s anything to that, especially the abortion & race stuff, but the polling data seem to reflect that NM will be tougher for Barack.
At the same time, all the reporting I’ve seen on NM has talked about Obama having a kickass ground game and lots of support in the cities, so once again it’s going to be a matter of voter turnout, which I gather historically favors the GOP even though by all indications this year is ahistorical. So, I think Obama has a good shot at New Mexico, but (as with Georgia) if he wins it will be more indicative of a national landslide than of a regional blue-ing, though the interior West is unquestionably getting bluer.
So, did you pick up the MSI Wind? I’m interested to hear what OS X is like on that machine. I made Katey wait until yesterday to consider a laptop purchase and now it’s looking like we’ll probably have to wait until spring. At least we have a brick of an xp machine laying around. No, not a water-carved, plasma-torched brick…
Just watched the podcast of the Apple demo… yawn. Even Steve seemed bored.
This will be my last comment on Colorado in this thread, I swear to God…
Quinnipiac backs up PPP’s numbers, showing Obama up 9 points in the square state:
Paint that sucker navy blue.
[...] Mexico – Forget everything I said a couple of weeks ago. Obama by [...]