Even cheaters can lose, sometimes
One of the Plain Dealer‘s more entertaining and observant political writers, Thomas Suddes, raised a question or two about the much-contested 2004 presidential election result here in Ohio. Below is my response (with bonus hyperlinks):
Sir,
Always enjoy your columns, the latest one included. But I may be able to suggest an answer to this question:
But if Blackwell and pals are so smart, how come when Blackwell ran for governor in 2006, he drew just 37 percent of Ohio’s vote; carried only one county east of Interstate 71 — Holmes — and carried just three of Cuyahoga County’s 1,434 precincts?
It may have had something to do with the facts that Blackwell was
- an absolutely charmless, wooden candidate
- running from the same party as an outgoing administration reviled for its corruption
- in what was, if not quite an equivalent to 2010′s “wave election,” still a very good year for Democrats and a very bad year for Republicans up and down the ballot.
Whereas, regarding 2004, I’m among those who believe that Secretary of State Blackwell made above-and-beyond efforts to suppress Democrat votes (which, if it may be described as a “conspiracy” is an ongoing and not-very-secret conspiracy where Ohio’s Republican party is concerned) but, while I think that may have been enough to shift Ohio from a Kerry win to a GWB win, I’m under no illusions that Ohio would have been 60% for Kerry otherwise. At the absolute most, Blackwell and friends managed to shift the outcome by a percent or two. Just enough to make a Republican win out of a too-close-to-call election. But not really near enough to make a Republican win out of the 2006 governor’s race.
Someone may attempt to game the system, may even do so successfully once, without being a magician who can do anything.
Thanks for reading,
Matt