Stickybuffalo.com

 

 

Battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania – McCain can’t win without it, so if PA goes blue it will likely mean an early night. OTOH, despite a commanding lead in the polls it’s not entirely in the bag for Barack (viz. This American Life‘s slightly ominous report from the weekend before last). Obama by 3-5.

Ohio – Polls show Obama ahead, but with this state’s history of voting irregularities & out-and-out widespread disenfranchisement, I just can’t count on Ohio. McCain by 1-2.

Virginia – Should be among the first results posted, and if paired with good news out of Pennsylvania will mean it’s time to pour the champagne. Don’t know why, but I feel like Obama will squeak by with a one or two point spread.

Florida – Ditto Ohio, though there are signs of improvements to the voting system like Crist’s laudable decision to extend voting hours. Between that and Obama’s well-publicized army of lawyers and apparently kickass ground game, I feel like he could win, but not by more than a few points.

Colorado – Decisive for Obama, to the tune of 4-5 points.

New Mexico – Forget everything I said a couple of weeks ago. Obama by 5+.

Nevada – It can’t all be good news, so I’ll randomly give this one to McCain, by a negligible margin.

 

Shouldn’t-be-close-but-could-flip-anyway:

North Carolina – Polling ridiculously close, but feels too good to be true. If they do go for Obama, though, it will mean all bets are off in Georgia. McCain by microns.

Georgia – Holy shit. As I’ve mentioned, the idea — however far-fetched — of Georgia being in play for the Democrat gives me a boner. I don’t think it will happen, but I’ll have a change of pants handy tomorrow night just in case.

Montana – Why not? Like elsewhere in the interior west, MT has been subtly trending blue, and seems like the kind of wild-card state that could deliver an upset. What the hell — Obama by one.

Indiana – Meh. Recession or no, those crackers will never back a Democrat. Polling is tight, but I just don’t see it.

North Dakota – Like Montana, their 3 electoral votes aren’t likely to make or break either candidate. Best-case scenario is MT & ND cancel each other out.

Missouri – Who knows? Obama could definitely win it. He’s campaigning there today, but my sense overall is that MO has not been one of the top-tier priorities for the O camp, and since it’s an overwhelmingly red state by default, McCain gets the edge.

Arizona – It would add a nice bit of insult to McCain’s many injuries, but it’s probably asking too much. Anyway, we’ll likely have a winner before their results are even in, so it’ll be mostly symbolic whichever way it goes.

 

Okay, your turn!

i got just want i wanted for my birthday: john mccain strapping on his bib and tucking into a big ol’ bowl of shit. today’s q-poll shows huge leads for obama in OH, FL and PA. the rest of us were playing it cool last week, but it looks like gray’s instinct was dead-on.

debate-night pundit commentary notwithstanding, viewers saw obama as the winner by a wide margin, and this week’s polling bears that out, along with reflecting voters’ apparent disgust with mccain’s “suspension” stunt. (the letterman thing probably didn’t help either.) it’s hard to see how the biden-palin debate reverses that dynamic. and don’t forget, voters still have two more opportunities to see mccain, cranky and up past his bedtime, behave like a petulant child as obama debates circles around him.

34 days to go. tick-tock…

So, John McCain’s campaign has been in trouble for the last week or so, as Palin’s popularity has plummeted, his bestest buddy turns out to be (surprise, surprise) collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars for nothing other than assuring that investment banks will have inside access to a McCain White House, and he and pretty much everyone around him have been vomiting gaffes as if their common sense had been up all night shotgunning ipecac. The economic situation others here have been covering well (and I’ve been avoiding, out of sheer terror) is turning into McCain’s worst enemy.

And now, he’s suspending his campaign until some sort of bandaid is signed into law. Nobody appears to be fooled by this gambit.

So now, I ask, with all due sincerity, is there any way in the world for McCain to win this election?