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In spite of my best intentions, I can’t help thinking about the 2012 presidential election and the incumbent Barack Obama fairly often. In combination, the two seem to make up about 75% of news coverage, after all.

And mostly, what I think about these two subjects all points to the single question “should I vote for Obama?” Obviously, this question has nothing to do with a choice between Obama and a Republican opponent. The best argument I could come up with in favor of even the most allegedly “liberal” Republicans is that, maybe, if one of them was faced with a solidly-Democratic congress, we might actually get some more progressive reforms than Obama could get with a similar congress just because a Romney, e.g., might prefer signing a cap-and-dividend law, e.g., to getting absolutely nothing whatsoever done, and a Republican majority might decide that a given reform isn’t apocalyptian socialism after all if it’s a Republican president signing it into law rather than a Democrat.

And even that’s pretty unconvincing, for various reasons. One, it will be a big surprise if we get solid Democrat majorities in congress again in the next few years. Two, even if we do, the idea that Republicans would be more cooperative (or at least less obstructionist) toward negotiated reforms, if there’s a Republican president involved, is very much open to question in the era of hyper-radicalized GOP politics. Recall how John Boehner agreed in principle to a “grand bargain” with Obama on the budget, then had to withdraw his agreement in the face of backbencher outrage. Meanwhile, three, a president still has tremendous control over foreign policy, and a Republican president could do a loooot of damage (again) as commander-in-chief which I simply would not risk, even if I thought we might break up the legislative logjam a bit, in return. (more…)

Yeah, I don’t have much at present. I’m sure you’re coping.

I didn’t watch the State of the Union address, as per usual (or the rebuttals or, gods help us, the probably a permanent fixture from now on “prebuttals”), and having looked at various summaries and commentaries I struggle to find anything to even fix on.

Which is why I couldn’t resist highlighting this one reaction from The Atlantic Cities:

The Urban Message Missing From the State of the Union
The issues facing the nation’s cities were largely ignored in the president’s speech

I mean, the general impression I get of Obama’s 2012 address was that it was a piled-up heap of just about everything but the kitchen sink. But, y’know, hey. We’ve still got to have at least one (and probably more than one) person coming along the next morning to lament that “well, the president didn’t even mention xyz issue once!” (Though “largely ignored” suggests to me that there wasn’t even a complete absence, here, and this guy’s still complaining.)

Apparently we still expect the president to be not only all things to all people but to be all those things at all times. Right-o, that’s realistic, then. Carry on everyone.

Okay, it’s here. Or, at least, the election which is the one genuine substantive event at the end of more than a year of posturing and jockeying and godawful TV ads is, at last, now less than one calendar year out. Indeed, a mere ten more months of this horse-race horse-shit and we’ll be home free, probably pining away for all the fun and excitement.

At least, if we happen to be political “journalists” who apparently genuinely do savor this grotesque farce known otherwise as the American presidential campaign.

For everyone else, how about one post to take stock of the prospects, as realistically as possible this far in advance. And then, ideally, just tuning it all out (again, as much as possible) for several more months.

First of all, the Republican nominee for president will be Mitt Romney. I don’t think this even really qualifies as a “prediction” at this point, so much as an observation. Romney will be the nominee, obviously, and all the chatter about other “possibilities” can be ignored. Who is actually a credible threat to defeat Romney at this point? How can anyone else in the race be taken remotely seriously when, even setting aside their own inherent clownishness, we’ve now been through months of one rival candidate after another popping in the polls, reigning as a nine-day-wonder, and then sinking back to irrelevancy. Bachmann, then Perry, then Cain who was such a complete cartoon by himself as should have put an end to anyone taking these wannabes seriously… and in any event, by that point the pattern was so obvious that people could (and did) make a ridiculous suggestion like “Newt Gingrich will probably be next,” and be proven right.

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